As an important indicator of global economic development, the United Nations' World Economic Situation and Prospects 2025 has attracted much attention. The report predicts that the global economic growth rate in 2025 will be 2.8%, the same as in 2024. Although the global economy has shown a certain degree of resilience and has withstood a series of overlapping shocks, the growth level is still lower than the average level of 3.2% before the epidemic.

Analysis of underlying causes

Internal constraints

• Weak investment: Many companies and countries have been very cautious in capital investment and have failed to promote necessary development. Although demand has recovered as the epidemic has been gradually brought under control, companies are still concerned about the future market environment when making long-term investment decisions, especially in the fields of technology and emerging industries. Although there has been a certain amount of capital inflow, the overall pace of progress is not satisfactory.
• Lack of productivity growth: Productivity improvement is directly related to the competitiveness of a country's economy, and many countries are currently not performing well in this regard. Some economies have failed to achieve significant efficiency gains in the process of technological reform and industrial upgrading, and this has affected the dynamism of the economy as a whole.
• High debt levels: In recent years, many countries have implemented loose fiscal policies, resulting in rising fiscal deficits. Huge fiscal deficits have undoubtedly restricted future fiscal spending and created potential risks for the global economy. Whether at the national or individual level, high debt means greater financial pressure, weakening consumption capacity and investment willingness. To some extent, these debt burdens have also hindered the normal cycle of the economy.

External risk factors

• Geopolitical conflicts: Regional conflicts and tensions continue, leading to fluctuations in the international energy market, increasing the operating costs and risks of enterprises, and affecting the stability of global trade and investment. Conflicts may also lead to humanitarian crises and infrastructure damage, causing long-term negative impacts on the economic development of relevant countries and regions.
• Trade tensions are intensifying: Some Western countries, represented by the United States, are trying to circumvent the WTO and are constantly increasing trade restrictions, which has hindered the free flow of goods and services, fragmented the international trade system, and increased global production and consumption costs. The relevant statements made by the new US administration may trigger a new round of global trade frictions and undermine the stability of the global industrial chain and supply chain.
• High borrowing costs: Despite continued monetary easing in many economies, borrowing costs in some regions remain high, increasing the debt burden of businesses and individuals and limiting investment and consumption growth. The impact on low-income and fragile countries is particularly severe, and may make economic growth in these countries more difficult.

Foreign trade: risks and challenges coexist

Responding to external risks and challenges

• Beware of trade protectionism: Potential changes in trade policies in Western countries such as the United States may trigger trade frictions and tariff adjustments. Chinese foreign trade companies should pay close attention to policy trends and make response plans in advance. For example, they should conduct in-depth research on trade rules and actively use the dispute settlement mechanisms of international organizations such as the WTO to safeguard their legitimate rights and interests. At the same time, they should accelerate the promotion of trade diversification strategies, reduce dependence on single markets such as the United States, and actively explore emerging markets.
• Focus on geopolitical conflicts: Ongoing geopolitical challenges bring uncertainty to global trade. When Chinese companies expand their business overseas, they need to strengthen their assessment and prediction of the political environment of the investment destination and make risk plans.

?Seize market opportunities

• Expand emerging markets: Asia is expected to continue to serve as the engine of global trade, and we can continue to deepen trade cooperation with Asian countries such as ASEAN. At the same time, the Latin American and African markets are growing rapidly and have great potential. We can strengthen research in these emerging markets, understand local consumer habits and needs, and establish cooperation channels and localized sales networks.
• Developing trade in services: The growth rate of global trade in services is significantly faster than that of trade in goods. Relevant companies can promote the development of digital services, tourism, professional services and other fields, make good use of the huge domestic market demand and rich application scenarios, and cultivate service trade companies and brands with international competitiveness.

?Improve the competitiveness of enterprises

• Accelerate digital transformation: As a new mode of trade, cross-border e-commerce is developing rapidly. Enterprises accelerate digital transformation and use technologies such as big data and artificial intelligence to achieve precision marketing, optimize supply chain management, and improve operational efficiency and competitiveness. For example, they build and maintain a complete customer data asset library, collect, organize and analyze customer data through digital tools, and achieve refined management of customer information.
• Promote the development of green trade: As global environmental regulations are strengthened and green and environmentally friendly products are increasingly favored, Chinese foreign trade practitioners should achieve greening in production, packaging, logistics and other links, adopt sustainable materials, optimize logistics methods, etc., to meet the environmental protection requirements of the international market and obtain policy support and market access advantages.

Conclusion

The global economic situation in 2025 is complex and changeable. How to forge ahead in the global economic wave and achieve sustainable development has always been a topic that import and export-related companies need to pay attention to. On the one hand, they need to seize opportunities with a keener eye and expand the international market. At the same time, they also need to strengthen their ability to deal with difficulties, formulate response strategies in advance, and reduce risks.